(Editor’s note: After I wrote this section, David Wunderlich posted a twitter thread about Vince Young going through similar issues early on. If you were Ed Orgeron and you cut bait with Burrow after 2018, you would have ended up starting Myles Brennan in 2019. Had you decided after Burrow’s first three starts against top-25 teams that he was an unworthy QB, you would have been wrong. These are both poor QB performances, but that’s really the point. He was more effective as a passer (though not all that effective) and less effective as a runner. Burrow has one less turnover and a slightly higher QB rating. If instead, we look at the first three starts that Burrow had against teams that finished in the top-25 of the AP Poll (#7 Florida, #7 Georgia and #2 Alabama), here’s the new comparison. Burrow’s first three FBS starts were against a Miami (FL) team who finished 7-6, an Auburn team who finished 8-5 and a Louisiana Tech team that finished 8-5 as well. The rushing stats drag Burrow’s Yards Above Replacement (YAR) – my proprietary stat for taking a QBs running and passing into account – down towards Richardson’s.ĪR is still worse, but neither of these stat lines would inspire a ton of confidence.īut this also isn’t a fair comparison for Richardson because he has faced three top-25 teams in his first three starts, one who won the National Championship, one who recently competed with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and one who jumped into the top-10 after defeating the Gators. The thing you’d point out is clearly the turnovers and the lower yards per pass attempt, but this does ignore the fact that Burrow ran for 38 yards total (on 18 carries) vs. Richardson was clearly worse, but he wasn’t much worse. In fact, if we look at his first three games as a starter against FBS opponents for the Tigers compared to Richardson, here’s what we see. I thought he had an opportunity to be special and thought Dan Mullen messed up when he didn’t pursue Burrow through the transfer portal.īut Burrow was not immediately all that great. I was obviously in early on Joe Burrow before he transferred to LSU. The question that’s critical to answer then is whether that is enough data points to make that sort of blanket statement, or are these the normal growing pains that young quarterbacks go through? The Burrow Comparison They see the way he fell apart when things started to go south and immediately conclude that he doesn’t have what it takes to be great. While that level of accountability is honorable and answers a lot of questions about his leadership ability, it doesn’t help to answer the question of who he is as a QB.īut as I’ve explored social media and message boards over the last couple of days, it has become clear that this one data point (or 35 if you wish to break it down that way) has changed the way many in Gator Nation view Anthony Richardson. I take full responsibility for the loss.” – Anthony Richardson, Florida Gators QB I tried to lead, but I didn’t feel like I did that real well tonight. I didn’t do anything that would’ve helped my team. A lot of people say it’s not, but I feel like it’s on me. “We lost, and I feel like it’s completely on me. Richardson put up a stink bomb against Kentucky. Is two losses –sandwiched around a really good performance against Utah – enough to make a determination about who he is as a QB? Again, I’m not sure. It’s the same with the recognition that he now has three starts, the Gators are 1-2 in those games and he’s played poorly in both losses. But is 35 passes enough to make a determination about who he is as a QB? I’m not sure. For example, Anthony Richardson threw 35 passes against Kentucky and played really poorly. You can see this whether you look at it nationally, or even more starkly if you break it down via conference.īut the key is that there are enough data points over enough years that I can see that the rankings correlate with success, which means that even if they do have some biases (because every human endeavor does), they’re generally trustworthy.Ĭonversely, each football game is one data point (win/loss) made up of smaller sets of data points. That reason is that we have a treasure trove of data that shows a distinct causal effect between elite recruiting and winning. But there is one main reason I believe the recruiting rankings, specifically the 247Sports composite, can be trusted.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |